If the United States wants to remain the leader in quantum technology, it will need to address the shortcomings in its current quantum partnerships with allies.
by Nathan McQuarrie, '25 for Annotations Blog
Quantum information science (QIS) is poised to fundamentally transform modern life. Quantum technologies could result in breakthroughs in materials science, pharmacology, risk analysis in the financial sector, imaging, and communications. Whichever country leads in QIS is likely to have an asymmetric economic and military advantage over its rivals.
Of the various quantum technologies, quantum computing carries the greatest promises and risks. Quantum computers will, theoretically, be able to perform multiple tasks simultaneously and exponentially faster than traditional computers, vastly expanding the potential of computing. Most importantly, quantum computers could theoretically bypass traditional encryption methods, jeopardizing vast amounts of commercial data as well as military and intelligence communications. This capability could be reached by the early 2030s, which has led U.S. adversaries to collect vast amounts of encrypted data with the hope that they can decrypt the data later with quantum computers.
To ensure a U.S. lead in QIS, the United States will need to deepen its partnerships with allies that have advanced quantum capabilities. If not, the United States risks falling behind in the technology competition with China, which has become increasingly important to the overall U.S.-China strategic competition.
Why the United States Needs Allies in Quantum
The key advantage of allied cooperation on QIS is that it increases the chance that the United States will be able to identify and pursue the most promising quantum technology pathways before China can. At this relatively early stage in the development of QIS, it is unclear which of the variety of specific technology pathways will ultimately prove the most fruitful, such as which quantum computing methods and designs will be the most efficient and scalable. International cooperation gives the United States an asymmetric advantage over China by widening the net for research.
Collaboration also allows the United States and its allies to devote resources towards their comparative research advantages. For instance, Germany’s large, established corporations excel in quantum sensing while Australia’s vibrant start-up ecosystem facilitates riskier innovations with potentially greater payoff. In contrast, China will have to develop all elements of QIS simultaneously using its limited, if still considerable, comparative advantages.
Finally, allied cooperation can also ensure access to all elements of the quantum supply chain. The critical components that go into quantum technologies, along with infrastructure, laboratories, foundries, and hardware testbeds, are spread throughout the world. It would be impossible for the United States to be completely self-sufficient. Instead, it can coordinate with allies to secure the supply chain and maximize comparative advantages. Such an approach saves the United States time and resources, while China’s go-it-alone approach is likely to prove extremely costly and less effective in the long run as it attempts to build up all elements of the supply chain simultaneously.
A portion of IBM’s Quantum System One, the world’s first commercial quantum computer, which debuted in 2019. Quantum computers can perform calculations at an exponentially higher rate than traditional computers. Photo by Palais Brongniard.
China’s Progress in Quantum
While the United States leads in the field of QIS overall, China has made significant advancements in the last decade. China currently leads in quantum communications, having launched the world's first quantum satellite in 2016. China's rapid advancement in QIS is the result of concerted top-down direction and a society-wide marshaling of resources, with Xi Jinping heralding QIS as a "major disruptive technological innovation."
Cumulative Chinese public spending announced on QIS amounted to $15.3 billion by 2021, which is more than all other countries combined, and surpassing the United States' public spending of $1.9 billion. While China’s overall dominance in QIS is not guaranteed, it is likely to remain a quantum powerhouse given the vast resources it is dedicating to QIS, and its increasingly impressive output of high-quality quantum research papers.
How the United States Has Partnered on Quantum so Far
To better facilitate allied collaboration, the United States has entered 11 bilateral partnerships on QIS since 2019. Each partnership creates high-level dialogues between relevant government agencies and seeks to deepen collaboration between research institutions, universities, and industry.
In addition to these bilateral partnerships, the United States has expanded QIS collaboration in multilateral forums such as the U.S.-established Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C), the Quad, and Pillar II of the Australia-U.K.-U.S. agreement.
The Shortcomings of U.S. Quantum Partnerships
While the United States has significantly expanded collaboration with allies on QIS since 2019, most bilateral partnership agreements are generally high-level with few policy specifics, resulting in a limited number of private or public partnerships on the ground. Though the partnership with Japan facilitated a partnership between IBM, the University of Chicago, and two universities in both Japan and South Korea, such tangible results remain an outlier among the 11 bilateral partnerships.
Additionally, while the partnerships facilitate joint research and information sharing, they do not contain mechanisms to coordinate strategic investments in QIS, raising the risk that partner countries could direct resources towards redundant projects rather than additive, complementary projects. In sum, existing U.S. partnerships have considerable room to grow and deepen before they begin to have a paradigm-shifting effect on QIS development.
Representatives from the United States and Germany signed a joint statement on quantum cooperation in May 2024. The United States has entered 11 bilateral quantum partnerships, though such partnerships remain largely surface-level. Photo by Quantum.gov.
As the United States has entered an increasing number of partnerships on QIS, the risk has also grown that it could end up spreading itself too thin by engaging in duplicative or unproductive partnerships. While many countries have expressed a desire to collaborate with the United States on QIS, there is often a mismatch in technical capability, funding systems, and scientific and strategic priorities in proposed partnerships.
Expanding the net too wide also creates more opportunities for China to access quantum technology illicitly. China often targets international researchers to fast-track its QIS development through illicit technology transfer. Beyond direct recruitment, China also conducts widespread cyber espionage, and U.S. quantum partner countries do not always have sufficient cybersecurity practices to thwart such efforts. Deeper research exchange with partners is hobbled as a result.
How to Deepen Quantum Partnerships
The U.S. network of technologically advanced allies gives the United States a unique advantage over China in developing critical technologies like QIS. To fully maximize this advantage, the United States should focus on deepening its existing quantum partnerships by increasing the number of high-level engagements between counterpart government agencies with the aim of facilitating more partnerships between industry, academia, and government.
Such engagements should also coordinate strategic investments in QIS to ensure that duplicative investments and efforts are avoided. At the very least, the United States and its quantum partners should be more open and transparent with each other about investments in QIS over a long time horizon to ensure that the net for research, exploration, and development in quantum is both as wide and efficient as possible.
Since existing U.S. partnerships have considerable room to grow, the U.S. should focus on deepening them first and it should be highly selective in accepting further partnerships, especially partnerships that do not fill a niche that the United States lacks in QIS.
To ensure a U.S. lead in QIS, the United States will need to deepen its partnerships with allies that have advanced quantum capabilities. If not, the United States risks falling behind in the technology competition with China…
Finally, the United States should provide technical assistance to quantum partners that have insufficient cybersecurity, such as Japan. Without better cybersecurity, U.S. researchers, companies, and agencies will be more constrained in collaborating with international partners for fear of their research being obtained by China through illicit means.
While these recommendations are not a panacea, they are important steps that the United States must take if it wants to fully leverage the significant technological capabilities of its closest allies to retain a lead in quantum over China. If the United States instead allows such partnerships to languish or be underused, then the United States will find itself on relatively equal ground with China in the race to master quantum technology.
Meet the Author: Nathan McQuarrie
Nathan McQuarrie is a second-year MPA student at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), where he studies U.S. foreign policy and U.S.-China relations. Before Princeton, Nathan taught second grade for three years in Arizona through the Teach for America program and volunteered for the Phoenix Committee on Foreign Relations. You can reach him at [email protected].